Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Understanding the Crisis

I will start this post with a sincere statement of understanding for the millions of Americans around the country who are currently unemployed and are experiencing substantial financial issues. I know what it is like as I have personally been there more than once. I lived through the inflationary 1970's on limited income while raising four kids and with a spouse that suffered numerous medical conditions. So for those now caught up in difficult circumstances, I GET IT.

Having said that, I remain somewhat confused that the amount of people unemployed when compared to the total workforce could be causing a near collapse of our entire economy.

Using the numbers reported the national unemployment sits at 9.6% out of a possible 100%. Excuse me but doesn't this mean that 90.4% of workers ARE CURRENTLY EMPLOYED? During the past 60 years the average national unemployment rate has averaged approximately 6.1% (or 3.5% more than the current level). Most economists consider a 4.5% level to be "full employment". So in reality we are dealing with current level that is 3.5% above the 60 year average and 5.1% above a "full employment" condition. Granted the current unemployment rate is too high and certainly needs to come down to a level around the 60 year average.

BUT, do these above average unemployment numbers that we are experiencing now really have the power to offset the 90.6% of workers that ARE employed and cause the National crisis we hear about 24/7? REALLY?

How much of the "crisis" is political? How much of the "crisis" is blown up by the media for their own ratings because after all we Americans must have our constant stream of bad news, right? How much of the "crisis" has been a diversion tactic by the banks, credit card companies, home builders, and too many of the general public who spent themselves into hopeless debt?


Let me repeat, 9 out of every 10 American workers (aside from those who have stopped looking) ARE WORKING and for the most ARE paying their bills and mortgages and ARE out buying goods and services (granted at a lessor level than during the insane years of 2003 through 2007).

Are we Americans prepared to throw in the towel completely because we have an unemployment rate that is a mere 3.5% above the 60 year average? REALLY? Has American optimism been lost as well? Will we not at some point get past the problems just has we have gotten past so many immense problems in our nation's history? I'm not ready to believe that all is lost just yet.

What we need is to stop being consumed by all the negative talk and fear being thrown at us every day and start thinking and believing in a positive future. By continuing on this current path we are also projecting a "woe is me" attitude to our children and that is not good at all.


IF things are truly on the brink of total disaster at today's levels what would it be like if we approached the 25% unemployment levels of the early 1930'? YIKES!! What if mortgage interest rates were 13 to 15% as they were in those tough years of the 1970's? What if the price of meat, coffee, sugar, milk, bread, and other products doubled or tripled as they did in the early 1970's? Yet, somehow we Americans adjusted and recovered from all of those situations that I would submit were worse on family budgets than what we are experiencing today. During the hard times of my eventful life I knew of no other way out of negative situations than to roll up my sleeves and do whatever I needed to for my family and myself.  Trust me, it CAN be done!

It is TIME TO THINK AGAIN

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